It's like blackjack, not roulette

In the book "Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took Vegas for Millions," author Kevin Lewis explains why blackjack is the only casino game that is beatable over an extended period of time:

". . . blackjack is subject to continuous probability. This simply means that what you see affects what you are going to see. This fact, and this fact alone, makes blackjack beatable. It's just a matter of figuring out how best to take advantage of the game's continuous probability."

The marketplace is also a game where what you see will affect what you are going to see. So why do so many businesses and organizations ignore fundamental changes in consumer behavior until it's way too late?

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Comments

Jon P

Hi Tom.

Q: Why do so many businesses ignore fundamental changes in consumer behavior until it's way too late?

A: Because they've been ignoring the fundamentals of human behavior all along.

Being adept enough to make the strides to keep up with changes in behavior requires first taking the baby steps of trying to understand behavior. And a quick surf around the internet tells me that 90% plus haven't even taken the baby steps. I recall a talented art director who used to flip through the ads in a magazine and shake his head. He'd say 'there will always be work'.

Strategic Growth Advisors

Tom, I can't wait to get my hands on the book.

In my own point of view, I agree with your idea that the marketplace is a game where everything you do (as well as the things you didn't do) will affect you greatly in the long run.

However, I would just like to emphasize that the most exciting thing when you're in marketing is the challenge of being constantly creative, innovative and observant.

Well, if you play your cards right, you might just hit the big time after a few hands.

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