Beware (be aware) of the Einstellung effect in 2009

You have three empty water jars, and each holds a different amount of water.  Jar A holds 21 units of water,  Jar B holds 127 units, and Jar C holds 3 units.  You have to measure out 100 units of water.  What's the quickest way to do it?

The solution is to fill up Jar B (127) and pour out enough water to fill A once (minus 21) and C twice (minus 6).  Simple enough.  Now, you have three different jars: Jar A holds 15 units, Jar B holds 39 units, and Jar C holds 3 units.  What's the quickest way to measure out 18 units of water?

In experiments, people who were given the first problem to solve tended to solve the second problem in precisely the same manner, namely fill up Jar B (39) and pour out enough water to fill Jar A once (minus 15) and Jar C twice (minus 6).  However, a much simpler solution exists: Fill Jar A (15) and Jar C (3) and pour them into Jar B.  But the subjects were mentally conditioned to miss this more appropriate solution. 

Most people and organizations will enter 2009 with the same "attitude" they had in 2008 (Einstellung is German for "attitude."), and therefore they'll mentally miss the more appropriate solutions to their  business challenges.  They'll be working from a set of assumptions and methods that are so firmly established from past experiences that it will create a powerful incentive within these people to continue to adopt or accept those prior behaviors.

Don't let that happen to you.  Slow down and reevaluate your problems with a clear-eyed view of what you're trying to accomplish and the difference you're trying to make in people's lives. Create a new model of the marketplace - and your role in it - which will drive new, more appropriate behaviors.

I know what you're probably thinking: "No need to worry.  That won't happen to me.  I'm tuned in.  I'm acutely aware of the realities of the new marketplace."  Sorry, but you're not.  New research reveals that even when you think you're surveying new conceptual terrain, your attention is still locked onto familiar features.

In one study, chess experts predicted that 74 percent of Masters would spot the shortest checkmate on a board in the shadow of a longer one.  But only 18 percent did.  And here's what's so dangerous: there was no immediate negative feedback.  Everything seemed to be going well, until something went wrong down the road.  Think General Motors, Circuit City, Washington Mutual, etc., etc., etc.

Make no mistake, 2009 will be a puzzling year.  But the solutions will be different than they've been in years past.  Make sure that you start the new year by changing your "attitude," otherwise you too will experience the negative consequences of the Einstellung effect.  Guaranteed.

Posted December 24, 2008
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Comments

Mike Alderson

As ever Tom, a well written post that causes me to pause and reflect.

As someone who provides consultancy to others, it is very easy to forget to take your own advice. Your thoughtful and lucid posts make me take the time to do my own self reflection. Thanks and very best wishes to you for 2009.

Mike

Posted by: Mike Alderson | December 25, 2008 at 07:56 AM

Valeria Maltoni

I've been thinking about asking different questions, maybe that would be a good start. We're creatures of habit and tend to crystallize around what has given us success. The most challenging part is unlearning what we think we know. I agree with you, Tom. 2009 will be the year when execution will become the new strategy and many more surprises will pop up for those who thought they could get away with more of the same.

Posted by: Valeria Maltoni | December 26, 2008 at 11:49 AM

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