Tom Asacker

Henry David Thoreau on predictions

"The Brahmins say that in their books there are many predictions of times in which it will rain. But press those books as strongly as you can, you can not get out of them a drop of water. So you can not get out of all the books that contain the best precepts the smallest good deed."

But I know you all love lists and predictions, so I've accumulated a bunch for your weekend consumption.

JWT’s Top 15 Trends:

1. Skype/VoIP
2. Wii and the next-generation gaming systems
3. The business of social networking
4. Pop-up stores, restaurants and bars
5. Shrinky Dink technology (TVs are flat and hidden, iPods are down to half an ounce, speakers are smaller and less visible, and so on)
6. The rise of nanotechnology
7. Sustainable construction/green buildings
8. Hydrogen fuel cell technology
9. Veggie-bus: school buses running on biodiesel fuel
10. Trans-fat fallout
11. Reality show talent searches
12. Ohio State's freshman basketball phenom, Greg Oden
13. Fear of agri-terrorism
14. Halal foods
15. Participatory advertising (user-generated advertising and music video competitions)

The New York Times conducted an informal poll of some advertising executives (summary courtesy of MarketingVox):

Agencies, oddly enough, are pondering, among other things, how the online world is intruding into offline reality. Life online will become an inseparable part of the physical world, according to some execs.

Websites will incorporate features from the videogame world - a sort of Second-Life-ing of the internet - predicts Clark Kokich, worldwide president of aQuantive's Avenue A/Razorfish. And more companies will start adding social-networking and user-generated tools onto their intranets, too, he says. Moreover, some retailers have begun using online shopping behavior to determine how to design and stock their bricks-and-mortar stores.

But a backlash will inevitably follow the 24/7 online lifestyle, with workers trying to separate their work lives from their personal space - and turning off cell phones and BlackBerrys.

User-generated ads won't go away, but will be co-opted… "Consumers are demanding and getting a seat at the table and defining what the brand experience is about," said Allen P. Adamson, managing director of Landor Associates, NY, a WPP Group brand consultancy. But brands will try to retain a greater measure of control over consumer-made ads.

Finally, as targeting and behavioral technology develop, writes the Times, consumers can look forward to seeing advertisements different from the ones their neighbors see.

Predictions from my friends at Foghound:

1. Virtual worlds explode and get branded. While Second Life continues to boom, companies will offer more manageable and intimate virtual worlds, like CokeStudios. Private branded virtual worlds not only appeal to people who are overwhelmed by Second Life expanse, but give marketers a new way to connect directly with customers and capture new types of customer data and insights.
2. More “Jon Stewartizing” of marketing and PR: Jon Stewart’s “Daily Show” has changed how people consume TV news, getting more from smart comedians on the Comedy Central than the establishment networks’ news broadcasters. Look for more companies to “Jon Stewartize” their Web content, sales meetings, PR programs, similar to what IBM did when it released its hilarious fake mainframe sales training videos on YouTube.
3. More marketing mash-ups: Look for more companies to create interesting mash-ups, combining content from multiple sources to create new types of experiences and services. See Business Week’s article, “Mix, Match and Mutate,” for a quick overview, and check out the Sun Labs Snapp Radio mash-up of Radio Paradise, last.fm and Flickr.
4. Service innovation trumps product innovation: While innovation has focused on product innovation, more and more companies will begin looking at how to innovate services because service has such an influence on customer preference and loyalty. Service innovation firms, like Peer Insight, will become more influential than product innovation specialists.
5. Business intelligence shakes loose its shackles: Business intelligence, while valuable, has been confined to analyzing structured data. New technologies that can analyze unstructured data – like call center notes, blog postings, email exchanges – opens up valuable new insights, making it easier to pinpoint opinion leaders, categorize emerging issues and assess attitudes and sentiments towards brands and companies. Keep an eye on this new breed of BI companies like ClaraBridge.
6. Blogger fatigue escalates: More people will tire of reading so many blogs, and will narrow down their daily reading and posting. In fact, The Gallup Poll recently signaled the turn, reporting that blog readership slowed down in 2006 after five years of strong growth.
7. Marketing geeks get more respect: The science side marketers get more respect – and become much more in demand, filling the underserved market need for professionals steeped both in business strategy and business modeling, predictive technologies and analytics.
8. Web 2.0 over-hypes: mania over digital marketing and communications goes into over-drive with shades of dot.com hype all over again, including the good, the bad and the ugly. Social networking, blogs, communities become more relevant and valuable, but beware that they’re not for every business.
9. Face-to-face meetings back in style: While more people meet up in virtual words and connect via blogs, even more people will opt for face-to-face conversations, meetings and conferences. According to the National Business Travel Association, 67.7 percent of corporate travel managers expect business travel to be up in 2007.
10. “Interactive” departments go away, folding into mainstream marketing, as marketers now see “e” as core to marketing and not “new media and marketing.”

And . . . my very smart friend Grant McCracken's Top 10 Ads for 2006; What’s Ahead for Brand Creative, by Kenneth Hirst; Top 10 Biggest Business Debacles of 2006; Top 10 retro gadgets of 2006;  Business 2.0's 15 Surprises Ahead in 2007;  Variety's 2006: Stories that never happened; etc., etc., etc.

See you next year, and don't forget to check out my predictions next Wednesday on GuruBBQ!

Roger Ebert on movies

"A movie is not what it is about, but how it is about it."

The same is true of "brands." In the spirit of the shopping season, here's a quick retail quiz.  Match the sales per square foot with the corresponding retailer:

1. $4,032                               a. Best Buy

2. $930                                  b. Tiffany & Co.

3. $611                                  c. Neiman Marcus

4. $2,666                               d. Apple

How a retail establishment is about it surely has to do with store placement.  But it also has to do with exclusive, margin rich products; attractive glass front store designs that resemble museums; cultural relevance driven by astute design and marketing; etc.

If your business is struggling with disengaged employees, fickle customers and razor thin margins, it's because you believe that your brand is what it is about instead of how it is about it.

---------------------------

Answer: 1d, 2a, 3c, 4b

Mitchell Kapor on information

"Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a fire hydrant."

Have you checked out Google Books? Google is in the process of digitizing library collections.  Take a look at one of my books: A Clear Eye for Branding. So it's official. There's simply WAY too much information to keep up with. I'm drowning!

John Stuart Mill on popular opinion

"Popular opinions, on subjects not palpable to sense, are often true, but seldom or never the whole truth."

That being said, I did a little research and found that one of my blog posts stood out from all the rest in 2006. I thought I'd close the year by publishing it again.  It's perfect food for thought as we contemplate our plans for 2007.

Lily Tomlin on stress

"Reality is the leading cause of stress among those in touch with it. "

Forbes.com just published ten ways for CEO's to cut back on stress. See if you can detect the obvious problem with this list:

1. Find An Outlet - A hobby, like fishing
2. Get A Massage - And light a candle
3. Get Your Zs - Sleep helps
4. Have A Sense Of Humor - Lighten up, dude
5. Lead A Healthy Lifestyle - Exercise and eat well
6. Have An Understanding Spouse Or Partner - Manage the situation
7. Learn How To Delegate - Let it go
8. Make Money - Money calms many worries
9. Meditate - It's not just for Buddhist monks
10. Schedule Vacations - And then take them

Do you see the problem?  Exactly!  It doesn't deal with what's causing the stress. Here's my list (and Forbes? Perhaps you folks should switch from business to alternative medicine.):

1. Be passionate - About how your work improves people's lives
2. Be clear - About precisely how you provide that value
3. Stay focused - On what customers truly care about
4. Communicate unceasingly - Your passion, vision and strategy
5. Stay tuned in - To the rapid and endless changes in today's marketplace
6. Be kind - If you want your people to be kind
7. Stop lying - To your people, shareholders, customers and, especially, yourself
8. Trust others - Which is not the same as telling them what to do (see #7 above)
9. Give back - To customers, employees, the needy, and the environment
10. Take risks - Brand is a verb, not a noun

I guess I'm it!

My friend Trevor, from across the pond, emailed me a fun little blogger meme called "Tag." Here's how he describes it:

"I have been 'tagged' by my American Blogger friend Terry St. Marie (aka Starbucker) as part of a 'virtual chain' where 5 Bloggers have to reveal five new things about themselves."

Note: You can find Trevor's five things here.

I like it for a few reasons. First, it's playful and I sincerely believe that play is important.  Take a look at the successful lives of people who have really made a difference in human society, and what you will find are playful people.

I also think that the virtual world, at least the business blogosphere, does a poor job of communicating our shared concerns, frailties, dashed hopes, etc., as well as the everyday moments that define our true humanity.  And as such, many feel isolated, affected, and separate.  I know I sometimes do.

Finally, it's a great excuse to reach out to a few online friends that I'd like to learn a little bit more about.  So here goes.

1. I went to University to become an artist, and I left with a degree in Economics. Go figure.  I still paint when the muse visits.  The photo above is of my last realization, which is presently hanging on my office wall.

2. My first job out of college was as a professional magician.  I still do some card tricks and perform at my niece and nephew's birthday parties.  They think I'm funny.  So does their father, my younger brother and the salt of the earth, Brian.

3. I have two wonderful daughters.  One is a college junior and the other a high school sophomore. Nothing - and I mean nothing - makes me more proud than these two exceptional human beings.

4. I am a classic Gemini.  My name, Thomas, even means "twin."  Here's my free, personal astrological profile according to Astrology.com:

You are, in many ways, an eternal child. Your mind is bright, alert, curious, flexible, playful, and always eager for new experiences - and your attention span is often quite brief. You grasp ideas quickly and once your initial curiosity has been satisfied, you want to go on to something else. You crave frequent change, variety, meeting new situations and people.

I also cry a lot: at movies, during memorable music, when I experience unselfish acts of kindness, when I think about my Dad (I miss him).  Oh yea . . . I also think that Astrology is a bunch of bunk.

5. I'm a mix of French, Native American and Lebanese and I enjoy all kinds of foods. But for some strange reason, I can not stand the taste of coriander; more commonly referred to as cilantro.

That's it for my five.  Here are five blogs that I read regularly (I read about 50), and I hereby announce . . . Tag!  You're it!

Grant McCracken: www.cultureby.com

David Burn: www.adpulp.com

Seth Godin: www.sethgodin.typepad.com

David Armano: www.darmano.typepad.com/logic_emotion/

Guy Kawasaki: http://blog.guykawasaki.com/

P.S. Don't miss the final GuruBBQ show of the year this Wednesday. We're going to interview Santa Claus.

Bertrand Russell on opinions

"I think we ought always to entertain our opinions with some measure of doubt. I shouldn't wish people dogmatically to believe any philosophy, not even mine."

I've been extremely busy during the past few months; speaking at company events and major conferences, writing articles, visiting with marketing executives of leading brands, and reading voraciously.  I've had my assumptions challenged, my cerebrum stretched, and my perspective broadened.

I've taken dozens of pages of notes and recorded insights on subjects ranging from the psychology of consumer choice to the future of media.  From search technology to content delivery (Check out the NY Times new reader). From service delivery and design, to point of purchase and direct sales. In fact, I've absorbed so much so quickly that I feel a little numb.

What really matters?  What should I focus on? What needs further research and contemplation? What should I keep?  What should I throw away?  I must narrow my focus slightly in order to deal with it, and I'm hoping that you can help.

At first, I thought doing a list of marketing predictions for 2007 would help in my pruning efforts.  You know:

1. Advertising dollars will continue to move from traditional media, especially television, to branded entertainment, video games, online video and animation, outdoor, etc.
2. Emphasis will be placed on blanketing the message across various touch points in order to engage ones audience in context, as well as seamlessly reinforce the core brand story.
3. More consumer-generated content on websites, more upscale private label brands at retail, more brands become retailers (e.g. Apple store), more emphasis on design, in general.
4. Increase in direct mail and consumer "pull" of online content (e.g. RSS), as email effectiveness continues to wane due to increasing levels of spam and advanced filtering.
5. Social media sites will proliferate and become much more niche-oriented (think magazines).
6. Continued emphasis on health-enhancing, organic, eco-friendly products and services.
7. Consumer expectations will continue to rise in all categories and will increasingly be satisfied by entreprenurial, innovative businesses.

But then I thought, what good is stating the obvious? So instead, I'm opening it up to all of you.  Help me make my information triage and speculation as relevant as possible. Do you have any questions? Would you like an opinion about something or other?  Send an email to tomasacker [at] gmail [dot] com.  I'll take the best and use them as the basis for my year end post.

P.S. Don't miss December's episodes of GuruBBQ.  We're hoping to do an interview with Santa Claus in the next two weeks.