"The ordinary telegraph is like a very long cat. You pull the tail in New York, and it meows in Los Angeles. The wireless is the same, only without the cat."
Okay, that quote wasn't about the Long Tail. So sue me. ;) But I would like to explore this "Long Tail" concept out loud for a moment.
Have you heard of the Long Tail? Here's how the Wikipedia defines it:
The phrase The Long Tail (as a proper noun with capitalized letters) was first coined by Chris Anderson in a 2004 article in Wired magazine to describe certain business and economic models such as Amazon.com or Netflix. The term long tail is also generally used in statistics, often applied in relation to wealth distributions or vocabulary use.
Chris Anderson describes it this way on his Long Tail blog:
The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits" (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers.
In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly-target goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare. One example of this is the theory's prediction that demand for products not available in traditional bricks and mortar stores is potentially as big as for those that are. But the same is true for video not available on broadcast TV on any given day, and songs not played on radio. In other words, the potential aggregate size of the many small markets in goods that don't individually sell well enough for traditional retail and broadcast distribution may rival that of the existing large market in goods that do cross that economic bar.
And here's an excerpt from the blog post that got me thinking about the Long Tail (again):
I'm on a mailing list (several, actually) where musicians across the world discuss stuff. Today, there was a message from a band that spent the last week as the "featured artists" on MySpace. They got placement on the front page, alongside Madonna and the Roots, for a solid week. One of the band members posted the numbers:
- number of times their music was played: around 20,000
- number of MySpace friend requests: 1200
- number of mailing list signups: over 100
- number of CDs sold: ZERO
Yep, a big whopping zero, null, nada, none. No CD sales! They're still waiting on a report from iTunes, though. The band didn't seem so much upset as curious — you'd think after 20K spins, someone would pony up for a CD.
I don't have any answers and I ain't a market analyst, but I'm just fascinated by this, and I suspect the clue is in the tagline — MySpace: A Place For Friends. I've always considered the currency of MySpace to be the Friend Request, which is easily converted into Ego Boost but not much else. It's such a low-risk, low-threshold action, too. You can never run out of Friend Requests; it's like a money tree. I can't believe the number of friends you have is any indication of whether they really like your music or not. Besides, when you're just one of a thousand friends, does it even matter anymore?
On the other hand, they got 100 mailing list signups without raising a finger. The band said most of the signups came from the same 1200 friends, so that's just over 8%, which is awesome. So long as they don't abuse their new subscribers with spam and stuff. (Do you have any idea how long it takes me to get 100 signups? Many, many months.)
Anyway, it kind of hammers home the lessons I've been learning for the past two years, namely that most of the time, exposure is just exposure. It's one thing to get in front of someone; it's another thing to keep them interested, and another thing to get them to care. It also gives you an idea of the numbers game the Big Labels have to play in order to make the bucks they need to stay in business.
Ahhh . . . The Long Tail. Or should I write . . . The Long Tale? So what's going on? Here's what I'm thinking.
The Long Tail business model appears to be about providing exposure to a plethora of marketplace offerings. Whether it's designed to expose products (Amazon), services (speakers bureaus) or people (Squidoo) the model works because the aggregator takes a small cut (sales, commissions, advertising, etc.) of many, many transactions. I write "appears to be" because this model isn't really designed to expose anything or anyone. How could it (e.g. 150,000 new books are published each year)? Instead, the aggregator relies on the producer to drive the traffic.
The value to the consumer appears obvious: one-stop shopping, a trusted source, search power, etc. But what precisely is the value to the producer (other than avoiding the headache and expense of shipping, billing, returns, etc.)? And what will happen to the aggregators when TypePad includes a slick, secure and fully functional shopping cart feature, and when content goes digital (books, movies, seminars, etc.)? My guess is the producers will say bye-bye to the aggregators. At least the most popular ones will.